How good is Paolo Banchero?

Paolo Banchero is one of the most promising young stars in the NBA. However, stats would tell you that his team is better with him off the court. So that begs the question, how good is he?

First things first, this article was made in collaboration with my dear friend Tim Oyeleke. He helped me during the film breakdown portions of this article and was a very good sounding board. It’s always nice to have someone to brainstorm with, and I think he did a swell job. So, thank you Tim.

Now onto the basketball content of this one - Paolo Banchero made the All-Star Game in just his second season. He’s widely regarded as one of the most promising players in the league and for good reason. Watching a 6’10”, 250 pound guy put the ball on the floor, blow-by someone with a good crossover, and then finish with a ferocious dunk around the rim is poetry in motion. Then seeing the next time down the court end with that same guy putting the ball in the cup with a midrange jumper is the sort of thing that reminds people that he is nice with it. He passes the eye test.

Look at how graceful this pull up jumper is. What’s there not to love? A guy of that size snaking a pick and roll into a smooth jumpshot just satisfies that part of your brain that craves pure hoops. Paolo is nice. Paolo is a hooper.

That phrase might put some people off from fully appreciating his game, but for all the hoop nerds out there - I assure you he is also a basketball player. He is a good passer for his size with upside to be a great passer, so to satisfy you as well enjoy the following highlight.

You like apples? How about them apples?

Anyways, Paolo Banchero is a good basketball player. He is a talented scorer, who has vastly improved as a shooter this season. Going from 29.8% from three point land to 36.7% is a very big accomplishment. He’s also a gifted passer with a good feel for the game, assisting on 25% of his teammates made shots. He is, in theory, the Magic’s engine. The guy who’s going to conduct this orchestra to play the music he wants.

Looking at the Magic in the standings right now, you might figure that that is working. They’re currently sitting as the fifth seed, with a solid chance to finish as a top four seed. All this coming to a franchise who has struggled to see any serious success since Dwight Howard - it seems like Magic.

However, much like a Cadillac Seville that you’re seeing that’s only $2000 - you have to look under the hood. That power steering hose? Yeah, that’s torn. The Magic? They have some flaws from a statistical perspective, and most of it seems like it comes from when Paolo is on the floor.

Looking at the on/off stats (pulled from Cleaning the Glass), the Magic are 7.5 points per 100 possessions worse when Paolo is on the floor. The offense takes a moderate hit at -2.6, which while not great, isn’t the worst. Especially when you take into consideration that a lot of the Magic’s success comes from their bench unit whipping other teams’ benches (their typical bench lineup consists of Cole Anthony, Gary Harris, Franz Wagner as the stagger, Jonathan Isaac, and Wendell Carter Jr. at the five. That lineup has a +17.8.).

The real kicker for his on/off numbers is the defense. When he’s on the floor the Magic have a +4.9 swing on that end. Now with that being said, they have a 111.1 defensive rating for the season - good for 4th best in the association. That bench lineup I mentioned earlier is putting the absolute locks on teams with a 94.3 defensive rating! That would’ve been second in the league in the 2003-04 season, only trailing the Spurs.

Several lineups that include Paolo look like they’re very solid defensively, and the stats back it up. With him on the floor, the Magic have a defensive rating of 113.2, but without him it’s 108.3. That 113.2 would be good enough for 11th in the league, just behind the Denver Nuggets. It’s just the 108.3 that would be second best in the league that’s the big kicker there.

Paolo is the offensive option. When they don’t go with him they often put Jonathan Isaac in for him, and Isaac is one of the league’s top defenders. So, that leads to a very poor looking swing, while the reality has a clear explanation - personnel. The Magic simply have better defenders than Paolo on the floor when he’s off of it.

We all know he’s a freak athlete and he can use that to his advantage on defense. In the clip above, he provides vital pressure to the ball handler while still having enough speed to recover to his man. This prevents the Nuggets from getting a good look at the end of a quarter.

He provides enough size to be an effective lowman as well. This leads to his best role on defense being fairly clear - a weakside help defender that’s pretty alright at helping to hedge against pick and rolls. He’s pretty okay at this already when he’s locked in, but that’s the biggest issue with Paolo. He has pretty significant lapses in processing and engagement on that end of the floor.

Even though he ends up getting a piece of the ball here, there’s an obvious defensive error. That’s a frequent enough occurrence for it to affect the Magic’s defense. Overall though, I think he is a slightly below average defender or slightly above average depending on the night. The Magic’s ma-sorry already did that one. What makes the Magic work is their defense, but they need an offensive punch and that is why Paolo is their most important player. He’s the spark for their offense.

So, just to re-establish - that boy nice.

Paolo’s combination of change of direction, shooting touch, and dribbling package makes for a scary person for defenses to try and defend. He stays light on his feet and loves to dance, he has a deep bag of tricks to rely on if he needs to get to his midrange spots against defenders his size. Because, despite the fact he is built like a truck, he doesn’t often bully defenders his size. If he has a smaller defender on him it’s minced meat, but a big reason he takes a significant portion of his shots from the midrange is the fact that he doesn’t always force the issue.

This can lead to some issues on offense for him. He should sometimes force the issue, because as Tim so eloquently put it, “He’s great at dancing, but sometimes in a crowd you won’t have room to dance.”. The Magic do have some lineups that work well with spacing, but a lot of their players aren’t exactly the defense’s priority from beyond the arc. That leads to possessions like the one below.

So, he probably should sometimes force the issue, but not in a way where he just puts his head down and goes. He should take his time more, and be more methodical. Put his shoulder into guys after putting them off balance with a spin. He has the answers, but just not the questions yet.

A lot of the issues with Paolo Banchero’s game can be simply answered by the fact he’s young. He just turned 21, and the game probably just hasn’t slowed down for him yet. Despite that, he is a top 30 or so player in the league. Sure, he takes a lot of midrange shots, but he sinks them at a solid rate.

When you can make one of, if not, the best defenders in the league look silly - who am I to tell you to take more threes or get to the rim every time? Paolo is someone that fans should learn to appreciate. He’s not a more inefficient Julius Randle like some have said. He is a 21 year old phenom who has his best basketball years in front of him, who is also an All-Star right now. He absolutely belongs in the discussion of one of the best advantage creators among his peers.

When he can operate a pick and roll like this, and deliver pocket passes that make my heart sing, how can I not be excited for him? How can you not be excited for him?

The answer is, you can’t. He’s just Magic.